Churchill Thursday Results

Churchill Thursday 60% ROI

Over the years, Betting Advantage exacta boxes have delivered massive payoffs — including bombs that the public overlooked. By boxing our top 4 selections, you cover the most likely winning combinations, especially in wide-open races with live longshots.

1st Race 🟢 $1 Exacta $21.11 
2nd race🟢 $1 Exacta $3.08
3rd Race 🟢 $1 Exacta $37.01 
4th Race 🟢 $1 Exacta $59.78
8th Race (last Race) 🟢 $1 Exacta $16.81

Total Exacta cost $86
Total returned $137.79 ROI 60.23 % 
📈 Anything over 20% is considered strong in betting or investment terms.

🔍 Most professional horseplayers aim for 10%–20% ROI long-term over hundreds or thousands of bets.

💰 A 60% ROI means you earned $0.60 in profit for every $1 wagered, which is a sign of sharp handicapping or smart ticket structure (or both).

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• 🧠 Expert exacta-focused picks for major tracks — updated daily- Current Track Belmont and Churchill

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• 💡 Handicapping rooted in 40+ years of experience + live track patterns

Churchill Free Pick for today

Over the years, Betting Advantage exacta boxes have delivered massive payoffs — including bombs that the public overlooked. By boxing our top 4 selections, you cover the most likely winning combinations, especially in wide-open races with live longshots.

🏇 Churchill Downs Race 7 Handicapping Analysis 📅 Friday, May 23, 2025 – Allowance Optional Claiming $80k N2X | 6 Furlongs (Dirt) | 3yo & Up

🏆 Top 4 Selections 🔵 8-6-5-1 | Alternate: 🔄 #3 Condemn (15-1)

WINNER #1 HARRODSBURG $21.20
SECOND #8 CAT ON TIME $1 EXACTA $36.31

TOTAL BET $12 TOTAL RETURNED $36.31 ROI 202.6%

💵 Exacta Box Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Estimated 61%) A highly competitive sprint, but #8 Cat On Time stands out on form and pace figures. Both #6 Attache and #5 Two Eagles River are proven at the level, and #1 Harrodsburg can wire the field if he avoids a duel.

💵 Key Exacta Confidence (Top Pick with Others) ⭐⭐⭐ (Estimated 41%) #8 Cat On Time comes in razor sharp off two wins and gets a great pace setup. Worth a light key, but field has quality depth.

⚡ Key Pace Dynamics 
🟢 Front-Runners (Early Speed):
🟢 #1 Harrodsburg
🟢 #6 Attache
🟡 Stalkers/Pressers (Tactical Speed):
🟡 #5 Two Eagles River
🟡 #8 Cat On Time
🔵 Closers (Late Runners):
🔵 #3 Condemn
🔵 #7 Deer District

📈 Pace Shape Overview Expect a lively opening quarter with #1 and #6 both likely to send. That could compromise the frontrunners and set up for stalkers like #8 and #5, who have proven they can finish strongly off fast paces. Shape leans to tactical mid-pack runners.

🧠 AI Edge Alert
🔥 Class/Form Edge: #8 Cat On Time (back-to-back wins, strong Beyers) 📈 Pace Advantage: #5 Two Eagles River (can rate off the speed)
💼 Connections Move: Ortiz takes #8 for Jacobson, red-hot combo
🔁 Form Cycle Alert: #6 Attache hitting peak form off sharp Oaklawn effort

💡 Betting Advantage Model – Detailed Contender Profiles
🔵 #8 Cat On Time (3-1) Why This Horse Can Win: Comes in off two dominant wins including a 95 Beyer two back at Keeneland and a 87 at Oaklawn. Tactical style fits this race perfectly, and Ortiz takes over. Trainer: David Jacobson (14%) Jockey: Jose Ortiz (25%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 82 | Late 98

🔵 #6 Attache (7-2) Why This Horse Can Win: Has hit the board in 7 of last 9 starts, including four wins at Churchill with 2 seconds and a third from 8 starts here. Extremely consistent and has early foot to sit just behind dueling speed. Last-out 93 Beyer is solid. Trainer: Chris Hartman (15%) Jockey: Ben Curtis (10%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 112 | Late 73

🔵 #5 Two Eagles River (5-1) Why This Horse Can Win: A grinder with tons of back class and a 3-3-1 record from 9 starts here. Recent Beyers in the upper 80s. Should get the trip just behind the leaders and pounce. Trainer: Jordan Blair (10%) Jockey: Cristian Torres (15%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 87 | Late 86

🔵 #1 Harrodsburg (5-1) Why This Horse Can Win: Could be the speed of the speed. Has multiple 96+ Beyers and has wired before. Must avoid pace pressure from Attache but very dangerous if left alone. Trainer: Michael Tomlinson (12%) Jockey: J.A. Torres (10%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 108 | Late 65

🔄 Alternate Selection #3 Condemn (15-1) Why Usable: His effort two back—second beaten by Gold Luck in a fast race—fits well here. Hasn’t won recently but owns back Beyers that stack up. Can close late if the top four hook up early. Trainer: Tom Drury Jr. (21%) Jockey: Emmanuel Morales (14%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 95 | Late 69

✅ Summary #8 Cat On Time enters in peak condition with a perfect stalking style. #6 Attache and #5 Two Eagles River both bring consistency and Churchill form. #1 Harrodsburg could wire but is pace vulnerable. Deep race, but solid top-tier exacta box.

Belmont Free Pick for Today

🏇 Belmont at the Big A Race 8 Handicapping Analysis Starter Allowance – 1 Mile – Dirt Purse: $65,000 | For 3yo & Up who started for $50k or less & never won other than maiden/claiming

🏆 Top 4 Selections 🔵 1-6-8-5 | Alternate: 🔄 #2 Devil's Cay (5-1)

💵 Exacta Box Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Estimated 62%) Well-matched group with a few class risers. Street View is peaking, Houlton fits the flow, and Timaeus offers value with trip upside.

💵 Key Exacta Confidence (Top Pick Keyed with Others) ⭐⭐⭐ (Estimated 38%) Keying #1 Top Gun Rocket is reasonable, but not dominant — strong value to include multiple combinations.

⚡ Key Pace Dynamics
🟢 Front-Runners (Early Speed):
🟢 #1 Top Gun Rocket
🟢 #5 Timaeus
🟡 Stalkers/Pressers (Tactical Speed):
🟡 #6 Street View
🟡 #8 Houlton
🔵 Closers (Late Runners):
🔵 #2 Devil’s Cay
🔵 #3 Warp Nine

📈 Pace Shape Overview A pair of speed types — Top Gun Rocket and Timaeus — could carve out a contested pace, but neither is a need-the-lead type. That sets the table for Street View to sit just off them and pounce. Houlton looms as a grinding type who benefits from honest fractions. Race should favor tactical stalkers.

🧠 AI Edge Alert
🔥 Class/Form Edge – #1 Top Gun Rocket: Back-to-back 80+ Beyers vs tougher
📈 Pace Advantage – #6 Street View: Can track comfortably and finish
💼 Connections/Trainer Move – #8 Houlton: Claimed by Dutrow, should move forward
🔁 Form Cycle Upside – #5 Timaeus: Claimed 3 back and improving with trip excuses

💡 Betting Advantage Model – Detailed Contender Profiles
🔵 #1 Top Gun Rocket (8-5) Why This Horse Can Win: Big Beyers (81–82) sprinting vs stronger fields; now stretches out in softer spot. Crushed a $40k N2L last out at Keeneland and was claimed. New trainer hitting at 25% first off claim. Trainer: Panagiotis Synnefias (13%) Jockey: Dylan Davis (18%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 97 | Late 78

🔵 #6 Street View (6-1) Why This Horse Can Win: Won two of last three with a second; earned 83 Beyer while just missing in a strong N1X. Loves the BAQ surface (3-for-7). Figures to get a perfect stalking trip. Trainer: Steven Schauer (41%) Jockey: Rajiv Maragh (7%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 89 | Late 72

🔵 #8 Houlton (6-1) Why This Horse Can Win: Consistent late runner with strong stretch runs at this level. Claimed by Dutrow from last out win. Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr. (17%) Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche (16%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 91 | Late 93

🔵 #5 Timaeus (8-1) Why This Horse Can Win: Strong 82 Beyer three back when drawing off to win by 5. Toss latest in the slop. Tactical enough to stay close, and has back class from tougher company. Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez (11%) Jockey: Ruben Silvera (11%) TimeformUS Pace: Early 109 | Late 69

🔄 Alternate Selection – #2 Devil’s Cay (5-1) Why Use: Has sneaky back class and earned an 88 Beyer in a strong $16k win four back. Lightly used in exactas but could clunk up if the pace gets contested. Trainer: Jamie Ness (24%) Jockey: Frankie Martinez TimeformUS Pace: Early 93 | Late 73